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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Optimal Learning, Overvaluation and Overinvestment

Authors: António M.R.G. Barbosa;

Optimal Learning, Overvaluation and Overinvestment

Abstract

Periods of technological revolution are usually associated with overvaluation of and over-investment by innovating firms. This paper develops a model that explains this behavior in a frictionless rational setting. When fully rational innovating firms face uncertainty about the returns to scale of their production functions, over-investment emerges as the optimal way to learn about the returns to scale. The optimal learning is also shown to produce overvaluation. The model is also able to generate what an observer ex-post would identify as bubbles followed by over-correction, negative excess returns in early periods, negative auto-correlation in excess returns and market-to-book and size effects.

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze