
Researchers and practitioners employ a variety of time-series processes to forecast betas, either using short-memory models or implicitly imposing infinite memory. We find that both approaches are inadequate: betas show consistent long-memory properties. For the vast majority of stocks, we reject both the short-memory and difference-stationary (random walk) alternatives. A pure long-memory model reliably provides superior beta forecasts compared to all alternatives. Accounting for long memory in beta also pays off economically for portfolio formation. We widely document the robustness of these results.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 15 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
