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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Expectation Formation in Financial Markets: Heterogeneity and Sentiment

Heterogeneity and sentiment
Authors: Bart Frijns; Thanh Huynh; Remco C.J. Zwinkels;

Expectation Formation in Financial Markets: Heterogeneity and Sentiment

Abstract

We set up an endowment based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous expectations about future price levels. Expectations are a function of fundamentals or trends, both interacted with sentiment. Agents are able to switch between expectation formation functions based on past performance combined with sentiment. Estimation results on the S&P500 index as well as its constituents reveal that there is heterogeneity between agents, with substantial switching between groups. We find that sentiment has both a direct and an indirect effect on expectations. Specifically, heterogeneity between groups is increasing in sentiment, and higher sentiment reduces the frequency of switching between functions. Our results imply that the true expectation formation process is a dynamic process based on multiple information sources.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Expectation formation, Investor sentiment, Heterogeneity

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
hybrid