The aim of this project is to develop new methods that will aid our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in a population, and hence improve our ability to control those diseases by vaccination. The methods to be developed will be used with serological data, that is, data obtained from blood tests. These tests determine whether a person has, or has not, been infected by one or more infections. Large studies based on such data are commonly used to plan vaccination programmes, and to monitor how successful existing vaccination programmes are at maintaining levels of immunity sufficient to prevent the occurrence of large epidemics. However, most of the methods that are currently employed to analyse serological data are used to look at each infection in isolation. The project is to develop new methods to analyse serological data on several infections at the same time. The reason why this might be fruitful is that the occurrences of different infections within the same individuals are likely to be correlated. For example, children who go to nurseries are more likely to get infected by all childhood infections that are transmitted by close contacts. The idea behind the project is to use the correlations between different infections (which can be measured using serological data) to tell us about contact patterns, how they vary between individuals, and how they vary with age. The way we propose to do this is by developing new statistical models for this type of data, based on relevant hypotheses about what might be causing the correlations to arise. The results from these models can then be used to improve our understanding of the spread of infections, for example by providing better estimates of the proportion of children that need to be vaccinated to prevent large epidemics, or by helping to identify how infections are transmitted if this is not known. The project involves a collaboration between the two applicants, who have long experience of statistical modelling of infectious diseases, and the Head of the Health Protection Agency?s Seroepidemiology Programme. So far, much data on different infections have been collected, and initial analyses have been undertaken to verify that the project?s rationale is well-founded. In this application, we seek funding for a researcher to work on the project full-time for three years under the supervision of the applicants.

This study will identify and analyse ongoing geological activity across the whole of Mars in the form of the changing morphology of kilometre-scale “classical gullies” (Fig. 1). From this, we aim to determine whether these changes are caused by the action of liquid water, or dry frost (water or carbon dioxide). Such a study addresses key questions of ongoing martian habitability, planetary protection (i.e. limiting access for future missions to possible ‘wet’ environments) and current climate. Jan Raack, the Experienced Researcher (ER), has just published a study of one such gully: this can be used as a methodological template for a more ambitious project. The core of the project is a global search for change in martian gullies using 25cm/pixel HiRISE images. Thermal and spectral data will be used to determine the types of volatiles that are present as changes occur, thus constraining the triggering mechanism for flow. The core task is supported by Earth-based field work and laboratory experiments using a Mars simulation chamber. This multidisciplinary approach, combining remote sensing, field, and laboratory work is a powerful methodology, and also provides great skills development for the ER. Significant outreach and communication activities are a vital part of the project. We will use a variety of media (blogs, Twitter, conference presentations, press-releases of papers etc.), and also apply to the UK Royal Society to be part of the annual Summer Science Exhibition. Preparing for the proposal and the exhibition will provide a key learning experience for the ER, and develop proposal writing, public communication and project management skills. The three key outcomes of the project will be two peer-reviewed papers describing the distribution and triggering mechanism of martian gullies based on a synthesis of field, remote sensing and laboratory studies, and the Exhibition at the Royal Society, where the project results will be communicated to thousands people.

We aim to find and evaluate the most likely place where life could have developed on Mars, and be preserved or even exist in a dormant state, mainly using stereo camera (HRSC) Mars Express imagery acquired between January 2004 and January 2006. We will concentrate on the newly-discovered frozen sea near Mars' equator, and other sites of earlier H20 deposition, as well as the warm subsurface aquifers from whence the water was erupted, and where life has the best chance of starting. We will use photointerpretation and geological mapping, based on automated topographical measurements, morphometric analysis and remote age determination, to produce a geological and hydrological history of critical areas which could serve as habitats for life. Three dimensional models of the Martian surface will be automatically derived from the HRSC images, using a refinement of existing stereo processing software systems. These 3D models and the associated images, co-registered data from previous US missions. Will be used to map and quantify the newly-discovered equatorial frozen sea and ice sheets. Automated crater detection algorithms will be developed and implemented to derive ages of surface units and constrain a time-stratigraphic sequence of climatic and geological events. Hydrological networks and catchment boundaries will be extracted from the 3D models to improve our understanding of the transport of water. Data from both present ice and past water action will be used in climate and atmospheric modelling, to assess whether glacial flow and surface runoff indicate a past warmer and wetter Martian climate, or whether such action could occur under present climatic conditions. This work forms part of the scientific output from the High Resolution Stereo Camera operations phase of the ESA Mars Express mission.

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.

The surface-to air transfer of water, CO2 and other gases is an important piece in the puzzle of climate change on all planets with atmospheres. The transfer of any other particles, e.g. dust grains from the ground into the atmosphere is of similar importance. Meteorology sees the surface at which this interchange happens as flat and solid, while in reality there is a persistent exchange of mass and energy between the porous, granular ground and the atmospheres of planets. This project looks at a boundary that is in fact blurred and fuzzy rather than discrete and flat, and tries to explain how gases like water, CO2 and dust or sand particles behave near that boundary, how temperatures change in the uppermost mm of the soil and what happens when liquids, gases and solids traverse the boundary of air and surface.