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Base Rate Neglect Under Ambiguity

Authors: Yiangyan Li; Jianying Qiu; Utz Weitzel;

Base Rate Neglect Under Ambiguity

Abstract

Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence. We show, theoretically, that base rate neglect, which is typically regarded as irrational behavior under risk, is a rational strategy for ambiguity-averse individuals, who have an incentive to hedge the ambiguity in the base rate by assigning less weight to it. The evidence from a laboratory experiment supports our theoretical analysis: 1) ignoring the ambiguity about the base rate, subjects appeared to underweight the base rate, and more so for the more ambiguous base rate; 2) accounting for the ambiguity about the base rate, subjects were surprisingly sophisticated in weighting the base rate; 3) more ambiguity-averse subjects underweighted the base rate more.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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