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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Sparse Change-Point VAR models

Authors: Dufays, A; Li, Z; Rombouts, JVK; Song, Y;

Sparse Change-Point VAR models

Abstract

AbstractChange‐point (CP) VAR models face a dimensionality curse due to the proliferation of parameters that arises when new breaks are detected. We introduce the Sparse CP‐VAR model which determines which parameters truly vary when a break is detected. By doing so, the number of new parameters to be estimated at each regime is drastically reduced and the break dynamics becomes easier to be interpreted. The Sparse CP‐VAR model disentangles the dynamics of the mean parameters and the covariance matrix. The former uses CP dynamics with shrinkage prior distributions, while the latter is driven by an infinite hidden Markov framework. An extensive simulation study is carried out to compare our approach with existing ones. We provide applications to financial and macroeconomic systems. It turns out that many off‐diagonal VAR parameters are zero for the entire sample period and that most break activity is in the covariance matrix. We show that this has important consequences for portfolio optimization, in particular when future instabilities are included in the predictive densities. Forecasting‐wise, the Sparse CP‐VAR model compares favorably to several time‐varying parameter models in terms of density and point forecast metrics.

Country
Australia
Keywords

330

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
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