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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Forecasting GDP Growth Using Disaggregated GDP Revisions

Authors: Check, Adam J.; Nolan, Anna K.; Schipper, Tyler C.;

Forecasting GDP Growth Using Disaggregated GDP Revisions

Abstract

This paper investigates the informational content of regular revisions to real GDP growth and its components. We perform a real-time forecasting exercise for the advance estimate of real GDP growth using dynamic regression models that include revisions to GDP and its components. Echoing other work in the literature, we find little evidence that including aggregate GDP growth revisions improves forecast accuracy relative to an AR(1) baseline model; however, models that include revisions to components of GDP improve forecast accuracy. The first revision to consumption is particularly relevant in that every model that includes the revision outperforms the baseline model. Measured by root mean squared forecasting error (RMSFE), improvements are quite sizable, with many models increasing forecasting performance by 5% or more, and with top-performing models forecasting 0.24 percentage points closer to the advance estimate of growth. We use Bayesian model averaging to underscore that our results are driven by the informational content of revisions. The posterior probability of models with the first revision to consumption is significantly higher than our baseline model, despite strong priors that the latter should be the preferred forecasting model.

Country
United States
Keywords

339, forecasting, data revisions, real-time data, 310

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze