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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2020
Data sources: EconStor
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Belief Formation and Belief Updating Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Experiments

Authors: Li, Wenhui; Wilde, Christian;

Belief Formation and Belief Updating Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Experiments

Abstract

Decisions under ambiguity depend on both the belief regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This paper exclusively focuses on beliefs, measured independent from attitudes. We use laboratory experiments to elicit the subjective belief formation and belief updating process in an ambiguous environment. As a main contribution, we elicit the entire belief distribution of individual subjects. For almost half of the subjects, we can reject the objective equality hypothesis that one's initial prior follows a uniform distribution. The results also show that, when updating beliefs, more than half of the subjects closely follow the Bayes rule. The rest significantly deviate from Bayes. An investigation of a possible bias in beliefs reveals that subjects' beliefs are mostly neutral and do not display pessimism or optimism.

Country
Germany
Keywords

belief updates, 330, laboratory experiments, ddc:330, belief distribution, learning strategy, D81, D83, Bayes' rule, ambiguity, ddc: ddc:330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze