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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Fertility Response to Climate Shocks

Authors: Dessy, Sylvain; Marchetta, Francesca; Pongou, Roland; Tiberti, Luca;

Fertility Response to Climate Shocks

Abstract

In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common oc-currence of climatic shocks such as droughts can lower the opportunity cost of having children, and raise fertility. Using longitudinal household data from Madagascar, we estimate the causal effect of drought occurrences on fertility, and explore the nature of potential mechanisms driving this effect. We exploit exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits, and find that droughts occurring during the agricultural season significantly increase the number of children born to women living in agrarian communities. This effect is long lasting, as it is not reversed within four years following the drought occurrence. Analyzing the mechanism, we find that droughts have no effect on common underlying factors of high fertility such as marriage timing and child mortality. Furthermore, droughts have no significant effect on fertility if they occur during the non-agricultural season or in non-agrarian communities, and their positive effect in agrarian communities is mitigated by irrigation. These findings provide evidence that a low opportunity cost of having children is the main channel driving the fertility effect of drought in agrarian communities.

Country
France
Keywords

C.C1.C13 - Estimation: General, Agricultural season, C.C1.C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General, C.C1.C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General, Droughts, Opportunity cost of children, Fertility, Climatic shocks, J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, J.J1.J12 - Marriage • Marital Dissolution • Family Structure • Domestic Abuse, Irrigation, O.O1.O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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bronze