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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
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EconStor
Research . 2002
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The Markov Switching ACD Model

Authors: Reinhard Hujer; Reinhard Hujer; Stefan Kokot; Sandra Vuletic;

The Markov Switching ACD Model

Abstract

We propose a new framework for modelling time dependence in duration processes on financial markets. The well known autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) approach introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended in a way that allows the conditional expectation of the duration process to depend on an unobservable stochastic process, which is modelled via a Markov chain. The Markov switching ACD model (MSACD) is a very flexible tool for description and forecasting of financial duration processes. In addition the introduction of an unobservable, discrete valued regime variable can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. In an empirical application we show, that the MSACD approach is able to capture several specific characteristics of inter trade durations while alternative ACD models fail. Furthermore, we use the MSACD to test implications of a sequential trade model.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Markovscher Prozess, 330, ARCH-Modell, Markov-Prozess, 519, Marktmikrostruktur, ARCH-Prozess, Verweildauer, Wertpapiermarkt, ddc:330, Dauer, Wertpapierhandel, Exponential smoothing, GARCH-Prozess, Mikrostrukturtheorie <Kapitalmarkttheorie>, Zeitreihenanalyse, Theorie, Schätzung, jel: jel:C41, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:C25, jel: jel:G14, ddc: ddc:330

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Average
Top 10%
Average
Green
bronze