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Modelling Analysts’ Recommendations via Bayesian Machine Learning

Authors: David Bew; Campbell R. Harvey; Anthony Ledford; Sam Radnor; Andrew Sinclair;

Modelling Analysts’ Recommendations via Bayesian Machine Learning

Abstract

We apply state-of-the-art Bayesian machine learning to test whether we can extract valuable information from analysts’ recommendations of stock performance. We use a probabilistic model for independent Bayesian classifier combination that has been successfully applied in both the physical and biological sciences. The technique is ideally suited for the particular problem where any individual analyst only focuses on a handful of the thousands of companies and it allows for dynamic inference as we track the performance of the analysts through time. The results suggest this technique holds promise in extracting information that can be deployed in active investment management.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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