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Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty and the Greek Economic Crisis

Authors: Gikas A. Hardouvelis; Georgios Karalas; Dimitrios Karanastasis; Panagiotis Samartzis;

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty and the Greek Economic Crisis

Abstract

We use textual analysis to construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece from 1/1998 to 12/2017, similar to other international EPU indices. We also construct indices of political uncertainty (POLU) and economic uncertainty (EU), plus EPU sub-indices related to fiscal policy (EPUF), monetary policy (EPUM), banking (EPUB), currency or Grexit possibility (EPUC), and pension policy (EPUP). The indices are positively correlated yet retain substantial idiosyncratic variability. With the exception of EPUM, they all rose during the international and subsequent Greek crisis. There is also positive correlation of EPU with international EPU indices, which rose in the international crisis but, as expected, declined during the Greek crisis. Positive shocks to EPU and to the other indices are associated with a subsequent decline in investment, industrial production, GDP, employment, household deposits, economic sentiment and the stock market, and with an increase in bond yields. These shocks go a long way to explain not only the direction but the magnitude of the changes in macro and financial variables during the crisis. A VAR forecast error variance decomposition over a three-year horizon suggests uncertainty together with bond yields may explain not only the depth but the length of the crisis as well.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
58
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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