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zbMATH Open
Article . 2022
Data sources: zbMATH Open
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2017
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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DBLP
Article . 2022
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The Dispersion Bias

The dispersion bias
Authors: Lisa R. Goldberg; Alex Papanicolaou; Alexander D. Shkolnik;

The Dispersion Bias

Abstract

Estimation error has plagued quantitative finance since Harry Markowitz launched modern portfolio theory in 1952. Using random matrix theory, we characterize a source of bias in the sample eigenvectors of financial covariance matrices. Unchecked, the bias distorts weights of minimum variance portfolios and leads to risk forecasts that are severely biased downward. To address these issues, we develop an eigenvector bias correction. Our approach is distinct from the regularization and eigenvalue shrinkage methods found in the literature. We provide theoretical guarantees on the improvement our correction provides as well as estimation methods for computing the optimal correction from data.

Country
United States
Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, FOS: Computer and information sciences, covariance matrix, 91G10, 62H25, 62H12, 40C05, 62J07, 65F15, 65C60, Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Statistics - Applications, Banking, eigenvector, Methodology (stat.ME), shrinkage, FOS: Mathematics, Finance and Investment, optimization bias, Applications (stat.AP), minimum variance portfolio, Statistics - Methodology, dispersion bias

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green