
Abstract A sovereign creditrating is a function of hard and soft information that should reflect the creditworthiness and the probability of default of a country. We propose an alternative characterisation for the subjective component of a sovereign credit rating – the parts related to the ratee’s lobbying effort or its familiarity from a United States point of view – and apply it to S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings, using both traditional ordered-logit panel models and machine learning techniques. This subjective component turns out to be large, especially for the low-rated countries. Countries that are rated as investment grade tend to be positively influenced by it, and vice versa. Subjective judgment in credit ratings does have predictive value: it helps in identifying chances of sovereign defaults in the short-term. Still, the impact of subjectivity in sovereign ratings on borrowing costs is very limited on average.
Artificial intelligence, EMERGING MARKETS, Economics, MODELS, Social Sciences, 1401 Economic Theory, DETERMINANTS, AGENCIES, rating agencies, RISK RATINGS, Business & Economics, 0102 Applied Mathematics, 3502 Banking, finance and investment, 4901 Applied mathematics, Rating agencies, credit ratings, DEFAULTS, 1502 Banking, Finance and Investment, POLICY, CREDITWORTHINESS, artificial intelligence, Business, Finance, Credit ratings, DISTANCE, NEURAL-NETWORKS, Finance, PERCEIVED COUNTRY CREDITWORTHINESS
Artificial intelligence, EMERGING MARKETS, Economics, MODELS, Social Sciences, 1401 Economic Theory, DETERMINANTS, AGENCIES, rating agencies, RISK RATINGS, Business & Economics, 0102 Applied Mathematics, 3502 Banking, finance and investment, 4901 Applied mathematics, Rating agencies, credit ratings, DEFAULTS, 1502 Banking, Finance and Investment, POLICY, CREDITWORTHINESS, artificial intelligence, Business, Finance, Credit ratings, DISTANCE, NEURAL-NETWORKS, Finance, PERCEIVED COUNTRY CREDITWORTHINESS
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 45 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
