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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2016
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Lasso-Based Forecast Combinations for Forecasting Realized Variances

Authors: Wilms, Ines; Rombouts, Jeroen; Croux, Christophe;

Lasso-Based Forecast Combinations for Forecasting Realized Variances

Abstract

Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso estimators produce parsimonious forecast models. Our forecast combination approach hedges against the risk of selecting a wrong degree of model parsimony. Apart from the standard lasso, we consider several lasso extensions that account for the dynamic nature of the forecast model. We apply forecast combined lasso estimators in a comprehensive forecasting exercise using realized variance time series of ten major international stock market indices. We find the lasso extended "ordered lasso" to give the most accurate realized variance forecasts. Multivariate forecast models, accounting for volatility spillovers between different stock markets, outperform univariate forecast models for longer forecast horizons.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Applications (stat.AP), Statistics - Applications

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze