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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2016
Data sources: EconStor
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Leveraged ETF Options Implied Volatility Paradox: A Statistical Study

Authors: Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Nasekin, Sergey; Hong, Zhiwu;

Leveraged ETF Options Implied Volatility Paradox: A Statistical Study

Abstract

In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation by Leung and Sircar (2015). This transformation adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the discrepancy between the IV smiles for levered and unlevered ETF options. We construct bootstrap uniform confidence bands which indicate that there remains a possibility that the implied volatility smiles are still not the same, even after moneyness scaling has been performed. This presents possible arbitrage opportunities on the (L)ETF market which can be exploited by traders. An empirical data application shows that there are indeed such opportunities in the market which result in risk-free gains for the investor. A dynamic "trade-with-the-smile" strategy based on a dynamic semiparametric factor model is presented. This strategy utilizes the dynamic structure of implied volatility surface allowing out-of-sample forecasting and information on unleveraged ETF options to construct theoretical one-step-ahead implied volatility surfaces. Additionally, we propose a semi-analytic and a simulation-based estimation approach for incorporating stochastic volatility into the moneyness scaling method. This approach allows to infer the "expected integrated variance smile" from the data.

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Keywords

ddc:330, dynamic factor models, options, arbitrage, C50, exchange-traded funds, C14, C58, moneyness scaling, bootstrap, C00

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze