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Journal of Banking & Finance
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System

Authors: David Aikman; Michael T. Kiley; Seung Jung Lee; Michael G. Palumbo; Missaka N. Warusawitharana;

Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System

Abstract

We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities to the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-four indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging the financial crisis. We also highlight several statistical properties of our approach: most importantly, our summary measures of system-wide vulnerabilities lead the credit-to-GDP gap (a key gauge in Basel III and related research) by a year or more. Thus, our framework may provide useful information for setting macroprudential policy tools such as the countercyclical capital buffer.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Early warning system; financial crisis; financial stability; financial vulnerabilities; heat maps; macroprudential policy; systemic risk; data visualization; countercyclical capital buffers, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:G01, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G23, jel: jel:G21

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    55
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
55
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold