
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2643716
Spanish Abstract: El presente articulo tiene como objetivo determinar el efecto de la tasa de cambio real sobre el empleo industrial de Colombia y sobre 60 de sus sectores industriales, para el periodo 2000-2010. Para ello, se realiza una revision de la literatura mas relevante sobre el tema y, mediante el Metodo Generalizado de Momentos sugerido por Arellano y Bond (1991) y la informacion de la Encuesta Anual Manufacturera del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica, se establece el efecto de la tasa de cambio real sobre el empleo manufacturero. Las diferentes especificaciones indican que una apreciacion de la tasa de cambio real contrae el empleo manufacturero del pais. De manera puntual, se encontro que una apreciacion de 1.0% reduce el empleo industrial entre 0.49% y 0.59%. En cuanto al efecto por industrias, la regresion base advierte que una apreciacion de la tasa de cambio real conlleva a caidas en el empleo en diez sectores industriales y a aumentos en siete de ellos. English Abstract: This paper aims to determine the effect of real exchange rate on industrial employment in Colombia and 60 of their industrial sectors for the period 2000- 2010. To do this, a review of the relevant literature is made and using the Generalized Method suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991) Moments and information from the Annual Manufacturing Survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, the effect is set the real exchange rate on manufacturing employment. The different specifications indicate that an appreciation of the real exchange rate contract manufacturing employment in the country. Timely manner, it was found that an appreciation of 1.0% reduces manufacturing employment between 0.49% and 0.59%. As for the effect on industries, the base regression warns that an appreciation of the real exchange rate leads to declines in employment in ten industrial sectors and increases in seven of them.
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