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Article
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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EconStor
Research . 2015
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Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Authors: López Pérez, Víctor;

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Abstract

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in measures of uncertainty over time have led to changes in aggregate response rates. And second, a discrete-choice model for panel data is estimated to test if changes in uncertainty measures have had effects on the likelihood to participate by SPF forecasters. The main result of the paper is that higher (lower) uncertainty reduces (increases) participation in the survey. This effect is statistically and economically significant. As participation and uncertainty are found to be negatively correlated, measures of uncertainty from the ECB’s SPF could be biased downwards.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Survey of Professional Forecasters, ddc:330, Participation, Uncertainty, Economía Aplicada, D81, European Central Bank, D84, E66, participation, European Central Bank, participation, survey of professional forecasters, uncertainty, uncertainty

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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hybrid
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