
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2616736
This paper presents simple Granger causality tests applicable to any mixed frequency sampling data setting, which feature remarkable power properties even with a relatively small sample size. Our tests are based on a seemingly overlooked, but simple, dimension reduction technique for regression models. If the number of parameters of interest is large then in small or even large samples any of the trilogy test statistics may not be well approximated by their asymptotic distribution. A bootstrap method can be employed to improve empirical test size, but this generally results in a loss of power. A shrinkage estimator can be employed, including Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, or Ridge Regression, but these are valid only under a sparsity assumption which does not apply to Granger causality tests. The procedure, which is of general interest when testing potentially large sets of parameter restrictions, involves multiple parsimonious regression models where each model regresses a low frequency variable onto only one individual lag or lead of a high frequency series, where that lag or lead slope parameter is necessarily zero under the null hypothesis of non-causality. Our test is then based on a max test statistic that selects the largest squared estimator among all parsimonious regression models. Parsimony ensures sharper estimates and therefore improved power in small samples. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that the max test is particularly powerful for causality with a large time lag.
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