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Econometric Theory
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Robust Forecast Comparison

Robust forecast comparison
Authors: JIN, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R.;

Robust Forecast Comparison

Abstract

Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. In order to address this issue, a novel criterion for forecast evaluation that utilizes the entire distribution of forecast errors is introduced. In particular, we introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority; and we develop tests for GL (CL) superiority that are based on an out-of-sample generalization of the tests introduced by Linton, Maasoumi, and Whang (2005,Review of Economic Studies72, 735–765). Our test statistics are characterized by nonstandard limiting distributions, under the null, necessitating the use of resampling procedures to obtain critical values. Additionally, the tests are consistent and have nontrivial local power, under a sequence of local alternatives. The above theory is developed for the stationary case, as well as for the case of heterogeneity that is induced by distributional change over time. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the tests perform reasonably well in finite samples, and an application in which we examine exchange rate data indicates that our tests can help identify superior forecasting models, regardless of loss function.

Countries
United Kingdom, Singapore
Keywords

convex loss function, empirical processes, forecast superiority, general loss function, empirical processes, ddc:330, Nonparametric robustness, forecast superiority, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, 519, Convex loss function, Forecast superiority, general loss function, Empirical processes, convex loss function, robust forecast comparison, Econometrics, General loss function, Nonparametric hypothesis testing, Applications of statistics to economics, C22, C12, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C22

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    16
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid