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Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: The Indicator Saturation Approach

Authors: Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso;

Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: The Indicator Saturation Approach

Abstract

Abstract Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, such as the growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. One important issue that has attracted a great deal of attention in the seasonal adjustment literature is its detection by an expert procedure. The general-to-specific approach to the detection of structural change, which is currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit-root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse- and step-indicator saturation, we use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the performance of this approach for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality and a stationary component. Further, we apply both kinds of indicator saturation to the detection of additive outliers and level shifts in the industrial production series of five European countries.

Countries
Denmark, Germany
Keywords

Strukturwandel, 330, Economics, seasonal adjustment, general–to–specific approach, C51, Structural change, Outliers, Structural time series model, Zeitreihe, Indicator saturation, C53, structural time series model, State space model, ddc:330, outliers, indicator saturation, General-to-specific approach, general-to-specific approach, Indicator saturation, seasonal adjustment, structural time series model, outliers, structural change, general–to–specific approach, state space model, indicator saturation,seasonal adjustment,structural time series model,outliers,structural change,general-to-specific approach,state space model, 620, Seasonal adjustment, structural change, state space model, C22, general–to–specific approach, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C51

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
30
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze