
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2464208
We introduce a conditional volatility model that combines persistent volatility dynamics with spillovers from a wide cross-section of assets. We use elastic net estimation on a large, restricted VAR of realized measures to model these volatility dynamics. We show that despite the many parameters resulting from this wide cross-section, this spillover autoregressive (SPAR) realized variance model forecasts accurately and can be used in estimating large volatility spillover networks. These volatility spillover networks can be visualized and used to explain Granger-causal contagion in a group of assets. We apply this model to identify systemic risk across U.S. financial institutions over the period 2001-2010, and show that our model identifies systemic risk buildup over the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
