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Forecasting Fundamental Stock Price Distributions

Authors: R. Glen Donaldson; Mark J. Kamstra;

Forecasting Fundamental Stock Price Distributions

Abstract

This paper develops a procedure for forecasting the distribution from which future stock prices/returns will be drawn fundamentally. Our methodology therefore provides a means for forecasting future stock prices and return volatilities and thus for fundamentally valuing assets such as stocks and stock options. Statistical tests reveal the desirability of our procedure over those currently in use. For example, our fundamental volatility forecasts outperform standard ARCH-based models in forecasting the volatility of stock returns, and fundamental prices from our procedure reject bubbles and excess stock market volatility while prices from traditional fundamental models fail to do so.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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