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Statistica Neerlandica
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Article . 2016
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Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression

Markov switching quantile autoregression
Authors: Xiaochun Liu;

Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression

Abstract

This paper considers the location‐scale quantile autoregression in which the location and scale parameters are subject to regime shifts. The regime changes in lower and upper tails are determined by the outcome of a latent, discrete‐state Markov process. The new method provides direct inference and estimate for different parts of a non‐stationary time series distribution. Bayesian inference for switching regimes within a quantile, via a three‐parameter asymmetric Laplace distribution, is adapted and designed for parameter estimation. Using the Bayesian output, the marginal likelihood is readily available for testing the presence and the number of regimes. The simulation study shows that the predictability of regimes and conditional quantiles by using asymmetric Laplace distribution as the likelihood is fairly comparable with the true model distributions. However, ignoring that autoregressive coefficients might be quantile dependent leads to substantial bias in both regime inference and quantile prediction. The potential of this new approach is illustrated in the empirical applications to the US inflation and real exchange rates for asymmetric dynamics and the S&P 500 index returns of different frequencies for financial market risk assessment.

Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models, Bayesian inference, marginal likelihood, transition probability, Metropolis-Hastings, asymmetric Laplace distribution, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Asymmetric-Laplace Distribution, Metropolis-Hastings, Block-at-a-Time, Asymmetric Dynamics, Transition Probability, block at a time, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:E0, jel: jel:E3

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze
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