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Um Modelo Computavel De Equilibrio Geral Para Planejamento E Analise De Politicas Agrrcolas (PAPA) Na Economia Brasileira (A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian Economy)

Authors: Joaquim Guilhoto;

Um Modelo Computavel De Equilibrio Geral Para Planejamento E Analise De Politicas Agrrcolas (PAPA) Na Economia Brasileira (A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian Economy)

Abstract

Portuguese Abstract: Neste trabalho C descrito um modelo Computavel de Equilibrio Geral (CEG) para o Planejamento e Analise de Politicas Agricolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira. 0 modelo PAPA pertence a classe de modelos do tip0 Johansen onde a solugiio do modelo t dada em taxas de crescimento. Este modelo C baseado no modelo ORANI construido para a economia australiana, desta forma e um modelo de uso gentrico que pode ser utilizado para estudar o impacto de politicas agricolas niio s6 sobre o setor agricola, como tambCm sobre os outros setores e sobre a economia brasileira como um todo, da mesma forma, o modelo tambtm permite que se estude o impacto de politicas niio agricolas sobre o setor agricola. 0 modelo C definido para: a) 33 tipos de setores/produtos; b) 3 tipos de fatores primarios (trabalho, capital, e terra agricola); c) 3 categorias de trabalhadores (trabalhadores que ganham: entre 0 e 5 salhrios minimos; entre 5 e 20 salhrios minimos; e mais de 20 salArios minimos); d) 2 fontes de produtos (domtstico e importado); e) 5 tipos de uso do produto (insumos para a produgiio corrente, insumos para a formagiio de capital, consumo das familias, exportagiio, e govern e outras demandas); e f) 3 grupos de renda (entre 0 e 5 salhrios minimos, entre 5 e 20 salhrios minimos, e mais de 20 salhrios minimos). 0 Modelo tambtm apresenta um detalhamento para margens de comercializagiio e impostos. A base do banco de dados utilizado no modelo se refere as matrizes de insumo-produto de 1980 construidas para a economia brasileira. Com vistas a ilustrar a versatilidade e a capacidade de analise do modelo PAPA, este trabalho apresenta o resultado de cinco simulagbes: a) aumento de 25% nas tarifas de importagiio de todos os setores; b) aurnento de 10% do consumo agregado das farnilias em cada classe de renda; c) aumento de 10% do prego do cafe do mercado internacional; d) aumento de 10% na quantidade de exportagbes de setores agricolaslagro-industriais selecionados; e e) eliminagiio dos subsidios no setor de moagem do trigo.English Abstract: This work describes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy. The PAPA model is a Computable model of the Johansen type and the solutions of the model are given in growth rates. This model is based on the ORANI model constructed for the Australian economy and in that sense it is a general purpose model that can be used to study the impact of agricultural policies not only on the agricultural sector, but also in the other economic sectors, in such way, it is also possible to study the impact of non-agricultural policies on the agricultural sector. The model is defined for: a) 33 types of industrieslcommodities; b) 3 types of primary factors (labor, fixed capital, and agricultural land); c) 3 categories of labor (workers who receive: between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages); d) 2 sources of products (domestic, and imported); e) 5 types of product use (inputs to current production, inputs to capital formation, commodity flows to household consumption, exports, government and other demands); and, f) 3 income groups (between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages). The model also presents a detailed specification for trade margins and taxes. The basic input-output data used in the model refers to the 1980 input-output matrices for the Brazilian economy. To illustrate the versatility and power of analysis of the PAPA model, this work presents the result of five simulations with the model: a) overall increase of 25% in the tariffs; b) increase of 10% in the aggregate expenditure of households in each income group; c) increase of 10% in the international price of coffee; d) increase of 10% in the exports of selected agricultural 1 agroindustrial sectors; e e) elimination of subsidies in the wheat sector.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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