
arXiv: 1312.7035
We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate dynamic programming and applied probability in general. We incorporate "soft information" into the estimation algorithm, such as knowledge of convexity, monotonicity, or Lipchitz constants. In the presence of such information, a nonparametric estimator for the value function can be computed that is provably consistent as the simulated time horizon tends to infinity. As an application, we implement our method on price tolling agreement contracts in energy markets.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Probability (math.PR), 93E20, 65C05, 60J22, 60J20, 91G60, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (cs.CE), Statistics - Machine Learning, Optimization and Control (math.OC), FOS: Mathematics, Computer Science - Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science, Mathematics - Optimization and Control, Mathematics - Probability
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Probability (math.PR), 93E20, 65C05, 60J22, 60J20, 91G60, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (cs.CE), Statistics - Machine Learning, Optimization and Control (math.OC), FOS: Mathematics, Computer Science - Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science, Mathematics - Optimization and Control, Mathematics - Probability
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 1 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
