Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ SSRN Electronic Jour...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2013
Data sources: EconStor
versions View all 5 versions
addClaim

A Real Option Perspective on Valuing Gas Fields

Authors: Zhao, L.; van Wijnbergen, S.;

A Real Option Perspective on Valuing Gas Fields

Abstract

Real option theory has remained a fringe field; practitioners believe it is not practically applicable in complex real world environments. We show that this view is mistaken. We apply real option theory to a highly complex energy problem with unhedgeable risk, time varying volatilities and endogenous exercise dates (non-European options). Investment decisions in the energy industry are often undertaken sequentially and are sensitive to information on markets and geographic conditions. Information may arrive gradually over time and as a consequence of early stage decisions. Contrary to real option analysis (ROA), standard NPV-based frameworks are unsuitable because they do not allow for the fact that new information may change later stage decisions. We apply the approach to exploitation decisions for a Dutch cluster of gas fields, where gas prices and field reservoir size are the two main sources of uncertainty. Gas price returns show volatility clustering , which we model using a GARCH specification. Reservoir size uncertainty is unhedgeable, which necessitates an approach dealing with incomplete markets. Finally investment decisions can be postponed or delayed, which implies an non-European option setting, for which no analytical solutions exist. Correctly modeling the structure of volatility has a major impact: Option values shrink by 50% if the time varying nature of volatility is ignored. We also show that a high correlation between reservoir size at different locations creates large option values. The non-standard features of our approach have a major impact: option values are large so real options based valuations substantially exceed corresponding NPV calculations.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

real options, 330, ddc:330, Q4, real options, unhedgeable risks, volatility clustering, gas field valuation, pricing flexibility, pricing flexibility, C61, unhedgeable risks, volatility clustering, gas field valuation, G31, G32, jel: jel:C61, jel: jel:G31, jel: jel:Q4, jel: jel:G32

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    1
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze