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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2013
Data sources: EconStor
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Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

Authors: Anne Opschoor; Dick van Dijk; Michel van der Wel;

Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

Abstract

We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily stock returns of US deposit banks during the period 1994-2011, and proxy financial conditions by the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (FCI) which comprises the money, bond, and equity markets. We find that worse financial conditions are associated with both higher volatility and higher average correlations between stock returns. Especially during crises the additional impact of the FCI indicator is considerable, with an increase in correlations by 0.15. Moreover, including the FCI in volatility and correlation modeling improves Value-at-Risk forecasts, particularly at short horizons.

Keywords

G17, ddc:330, Bank holding companies, Financial Conditions Indexes, Dynamic correlations, E44, Volatility modeling, G23, Dynamic correlations, Volatility modeling, Financial Conditions Indexes, Bank holding companies, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:G23, jel: jel:G17

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze