
handle: 10419/75427
Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation’s perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem’s resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastro- phe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.
Q54, ddc:330, catastrophic events, Uncertainty, Time Consistency, catastrophic events; decision theory; uncertainty; time consistency, C73, D83, Decision Theory, Catastrophic Events, Decision Theory, Uncertainty, Time Consistency, time consistency, decision theory, Catastrophic Events, uncertainty, catastrophic events;decision theory;uncertainty;time consistency, jel: jel:C73, jel: jel:D83, jel: jel:Q54
Q54, ddc:330, catastrophic events, Uncertainty, Time Consistency, catastrophic events; decision theory; uncertainty; time consistency, C73, D83, Decision Theory, Catastrophic Events, Decision Theory, Uncertainty, Time Consistency, time consistency, decision theory, Catastrophic Events, uncertainty, catastrophic events;decision theory;uncertainty;time consistency, jel: jel:C73, jel: jel:D83, jel: jel:Q54
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
