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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Banking & Finance
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Asymmetry in Government Bond Returns

Authors: Fujiwara, Ippei; Korber, Lena Mareen; Nagakura, Daisuke;

Asymmetry in Government Bond Returns

Abstract

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modelling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Government bond returns; skewness; conditional symmetry test, Keywords: Conditional symmetry test, Government Bond Returns; Skewness; Conditional Symmetry Test, Government bond returns, Skewness, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G10

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    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze