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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
The Journal of Investment Strategies
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The Role of Diversification Risk in Financial Bubbles

Authors: Wanfeng Yan; Ryan Woodard; Didier Sornette;

The Role of Diversification Risk in Financial Bubbles

Abstract

We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the "Zipf factor", which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical characteristics of a bubble described in the JLS model, the new model provides additional information about the concentration of stock gains over time. This allows us to understand better the risk diversification and to explain the investors' behavior during the bubble generation. We apply this new model to two famous Chinese stock bubbles, from August 2006 to October 2007 (bubble 1) and from October 2008 to August 2009 (bubble 2). The Zipf factor is found highly significant for bubble 1, corresponding to the fact that valuation gains were more concentrated on the large firms of the Shanghai index. It is likely that the widespread acknowledgement of the 80-20 rule in the Chinese media and discussion forums led many investors to discount the risk of a lack of diversification, therefore enhancing the role of the Zipf factor. For bubble 2, the Zipf factor is found marginally relevant, suggesting a larger weight of market gains on small firms. We interpret this result as the consequence of the response of the Chinese economy to the very large stimulus provided by the Chinese government in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Average
Average
Top 10%
bronze