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Credible Interval Computation in Weather Derivatives Pricing

Authors: Shree Khare; Stephen Jewson;

Credible Interval Computation in Weather Derivatives Pricing

Abstract

This paper examines the quantification of uncertainty in weather derivatives pricing. The focus is on the propagation of a posterior distribution on uncertain model parameters through to relevant payoff statistics, summarizing the uncertainty using variance based credible intervals for any given payoff statistic. We also demonstrate the use of sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters on the credible interval size. This paper serves a multitude of purposes. Firstly, we provide a basic review of the underlying theory behind uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, along with authors' novel ideas for numerical implementation. We also provide a novel and informative set of numerical results for credible interval computation and sensitivity analysis for a market relevant 5-station temperature problem. This paper serves as a foundation for exploring the use of Bayesian uncertainty/sensitivity quantification in weather derivatives portfolio management.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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