
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2146589
Employing time series of single-name CDS market spreads from 29 European banks located in the EU-12 plus Switzerland and the UK over the period from January 2004 through September 2010 this paper analyses the relationship between increasing sovereign risk and bank-specific CDS pricing. Results from calculating relative CDS spread deviations (model minus market spreads) initially reveal a price bubble in the European CDS market until the beginning of the financial crisis in mid-2007. From this point in time the gap narrows remarkably during the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis period. Corresponding to these findings, the empirical analysis reveals a negative impact of sovereign risk on calculated CDS spread differentials indicating a spill-over effect between sovereign risk and bank risk and hence, a positive effect on bank-specific CDS pricing. Further analyses reveal that the perception of sovereign risk is not crisis- but country-dependent suggesting that bank-specific CDS market spreads may already include a premium to cover sovereign risk from PIIGS countries during the pre-crisis period in Europe.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
