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Sovereign Risk and Bank-Specific CDS Pricing

Authors: Christian Meine; Tobias C. Michalak; Andre Uhde;

Sovereign Risk and Bank-Specific CDS Pricing

Abstract

Employing time series of single-name CDS market spreads from 29 European banks located in the EU-12 plus Switzerland and the UK over the period from January 2004 through September 2010 this paper analyses the relationship between increasing sovereign risk and bank-specific CDS pricing. Results from calculating relative CDS spread deviations (model minus market spreads) initially reveal a price bubble in the European CDS market until the beginning of the financial crisis in mid-2007. From this point in time the gap narrows remarkably during the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis period. Corresponding to these findings, the empirical analysis reveals a negative impact of sovereign risk on calculated CDS spread differentials indicating a spill-over effect between sovereign risk and bank risk and hence, a positive effect on bank-specific CDS pricing. Further analyses reveal that the perception of sovereign risk is not crisis- but country-dependent suggesting that bank-specific CDS market spreads may already include a premium to cover sovereign risk from PIIGS countries during the pre-crisis period in Europe.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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