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EconStor
Research . 2015
Data sources: EconStor
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EconStor
Research . 2015
Data sources: EconStor
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Econometric Reviews
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2012
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Modeling and Forecasting Persistent Financial Durations

Authors: Filip Žikeš; Jozef Baruník; Nikhil Shenai;

Modeling and Forecasting Persistent Financial Durations

Abstract

This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential $β$-mixing as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly persistent autocorrelation. We study analytically and by simulation how this feature of durations generated by the MSMD process propagates to counts and realized volatility. We employ a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the MSMD parameters based on the Whittle approximation and establish its strong consistency and asymptotic normality for general MSMD specifications. We show that the Whittle estimation is a computationally simple and fast alternative to maximum likelihood. Finally, we compare the performance of the MSMD model with competing short- and long-memory duration models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise based on price durations of three major foreign exchange futures contracts. The results of the comparison show that the MSMD and LMSD perform similarly and are superior to the short-memory ACD models.

Related Organizations
Keywords

G17, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), ddc:330, long memory, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, price durations, FOS: Economics and business, realized volatility, C13, C58, Whittle estimation, price durations,long memory,multifractal models,realized volatility,Whittle estimation, multifractal models, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:G17, ddc: ddc:330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze