
While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the dynamic relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging market stock prices. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression model to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard and projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run. The model also captures stylized facts regarding movements in oil prices. A positive oil production shock lowers oil prices while a positive shock to real economic activity increases oil prices. There is also evidence that increases in emerging market stock prices increases oil prices.
Emerging markets; oil prices; exchange rates, Emerging market stock prices; oil prices; exchange rates, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:Q43
Emerging markets; oil prices; exchange rates, Emerging market stock prices; oil prices; exchange rates, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:Q43
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 561 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 0.1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% |
