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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
e-Prints Soton
Book . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: e-Prints Soton
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Regime Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions

Authors: Gonzalo, Jesus; Pitarakis, Jean-Yves;

Regime Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions

Abstract

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor with the aim of assessing the presence of predictability. Key complications that arise are the potential presence of endogeneity and the poor adequacy of asymptotic approximations. In this paper we develop tests for uncovering the presence of predictability in such models when the strength or direction of predictability may alternate across different economically meaningful episodes. An empirical application reconsiders the Dividend Yield based return predictability and documents a strong predictability that is countercyclical, occurring solely during bad economic times.

Countries
United Kingdom, Germany
Keywords

330, Endogeneity, Return predictability, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Endogeneity, Persistence, Return Predictability, Threshold Models, Threshold models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Diffusion Processes, Economía, Persistence, C50 - General, C22 - Time-Series Models, jel: jel:C50, jel: jel:C22

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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40
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12
39
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bronze