
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1735836
handle: 11245/1.363824 , 10419/86976
This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes (as well as across variables), (ii) it allows the cycle to consist of any number of regimesJ ≥ 2, and (iii) it allows for regime-dependent volatilities and correlations. In an empirical application to monthly returns on size-based stock portfolios, a three-regime model with asymmetric phase shifts and regime-dependent heteroscedasticity is found to characterize the joint distribution of returns most adequately. While large- and small-cap portfolios switch contemporaneously into boom and crash regimes, the large-cap portfolio leads the small-cap portfolio for switches to a moderate regime by a month.
Markovscher Prozess, 330, ddc:330, Bayesian analysis, EUR ESE 33, imperfect synchronization, phase shifts, regime-switching models, Bayesian analysis, 510, C51, C52, phase shifts, Zeitreihenanalyse, EUR ESE 31, regime-switching models, imperfect synchronization, C32, C11, Theorie, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C11
Markovscher Prozess, 330, ddc:330, Bayesian analysis, EUR ESE 33, imperfect synchronization, phase shifts, regime-switching models, Bayesian analysis, 510, C51, C52, phase shifts, Zeitreihenanalyse, EUR ESE 31, regime-switching models, imperfect synchronization, C32, C11, Theorie, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C11
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