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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2011
Data sources: EconStor
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Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models

Authors: Cakmakli, C.; Paap, R.; van Dijk, D.;

Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models

Abstract

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes (as well as across variables), (ii) it allows the cycle to consist of any number of regimesJ ≥ 2, and (iii) it allows for regime-dependent volatilities and correlations. In an empirical application to monthly returns on size-based stock portfolios, a three-regime model with asymmetric phase shifts and regime-dependent heteroscedasticity is found to characterize the joint distribution of returns most adequately. While large- and small-cap portfolios switch contemporaneously into boom and crash regimes, the large-cap portfolio leads the small-cap portfolio for switches to a moderate regime by a month.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Markovscher Prozess, 330, ddc:330, Bayesian analysis, EUR ESE 33, imperfect synchronization, phase shifts, regime-switching models, Bayesian analysis, 510, C51, C52, phase shifts, Zeitreihenanalyse, EUR ESE 31, regime-switching models, imperfect synchronization, C32, C11, Theorie, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Average
Average
Top 10%
bronze
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