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Research . 2010
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Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2010
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Cash-Flow Predictability: Still Going Strong

Still Going Strong
Authors: Schmelling, Maik; Rangvid, Jesper; Schrimpf, Andreas;

Cash-Flow Predictability: Still Going Strong

Abstract

The common perception in the literature is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends, but contain some information about future stock returns. In this paper, we show that this finding reverses when looking at a broad panel of countries outside the U.S.. In particular, we demonstrate that aggregate dividend growth rates are highly predictable by the dividend yield and that dividend predictability is clearly stronger than return predictability in medium-sized and smaller countries that account for the majority of countries in the world. We show that this is true both in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross-country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium-sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility.

Country
Denmark
Keywords

ddc:330, growth, G15, international stock markets, idiosyncratic volatility, dividend yield, value, predictability, G12, F31

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze