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We study an overlapping-generations economy in which new agents innovate and introduce new products and firms. Innovation is stochastic. The new firms increase overall productivity, but also steal business from pre-existing firms and act as depreciation shocks for the human capital of existing agents. Since new firms belong to newly arriving agents, innovations are a double-edged sword for pre-existing generations: Increased innovation activity increases the total output, but it also reduces the share of the pre-existing agents in the increased output. The latter effect — “the displacement risk” — makes agents reluctant to hold stock in firms whose output is exposed to increased innovation and competition by new firms, while giving a hedging value to firms that can profit from innovation. Therefore the model produces a value effect. At the aggregate level the displacement risk makes agents reluctant to hold stock of existing firms, since their profits are collectively at risk from new entrants. This leads to a higher equity premium. We calibrate the model so that it can match estimated cohort effects for individuals and firms, and evaluate its quantitative implications.
jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G10
jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G10
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 12 | |
popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |