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How Volatile is ENSO

Authors: Chu, L.; McAleer, M.J.; Chen, C-C.;

How Volatile is ENSO

Abstract

The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability, which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in ENSO. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately. The empirical results show that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for SST are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with an even stronger El Nino or La Nina in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.

Countries
Spain, Netherlands
Keywords

SOI, GARCH, GJR, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, EGARCH, ENSO, GARCH, GJR, SOI, SOT, Volatility, SOT, ENSO, SOI, SOT, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Volatility, GARCH, GJR, EGARCH., EGARCH., ENSO; SOI; SOT; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Volatility; GARCH; GJR; EGARCH, Volatility, 5302 Econometría, Econometría (Economía), EUR ESE 31, Econometría, ENSO, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:Q25, jel: jel:Q29

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green