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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Pacific Economic Rev...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Pacific Economic Review
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2009
Data sources: EconStor
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A Model of Overconfidence

Authors: Weinberg, Bruce A.;

A Model of Overconfidence

Abstract

AbstractPeople use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output (and utility); however, extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists find that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous.

Keywords

overconfidence, behavioral economics, information processing, ddc:330, Overconfidence, D08, behavioral economics, information processing, Verhaltensökonomik, Beschränkte Rationalität, Informationsverhalten, D03, Kognition, Theorie, jel: jel:D03

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
28
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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