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handle: 10419/25331
Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index k t in the lee–carter model, we develop a dynamic asset-liability model to assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in this stochastic simulation framework are driven by a gdp-linked variant of the lee–carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices react to changes in gdp, which itself is modelled as a stochastic process. Our simulation results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in gdp is incorporated.
G28, Konjunktur, Konkurs, Lee-Carter model, stochastic mortality, Sterblichkeit, Stochastischer Prozess, business cycle, G32, E32, Lebensversicherung, ddc:330, 330 Wirtschaft, J11, Life insurance, asset-liability management, stochastic mortality, Lee-Carter model, business cycle, Betriebliche Liquidität, Life insurance, asset-liability management, G22, G23, Theorie, jel: jel:G23, jel: jel:G22, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:G32, jel: jel:J11
G28, Konjunktur, Konkurs, Lee-Carter model, stochastic mortality, Sterblichkeit, Stochastischer Prozess, business cycle, G32, E32, Lebensversicherung, ddc:330, 330 Wirtschaft, J11, Life insurance, asset-liability management, stochastic mortality, Lee-Carter model, business cycle, Betriebliche Liquidität, Life insurance, asset-liability management, G22, G23, Theorie, jel: jel:G23, jel: jel:G22, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:G32, jel: jel:J11
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