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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2008
Data sources: EconStor
MPG.PuRe
Research . 2008
Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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Base-Rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-Rate Tasks with Multiple Cues

Authors: Andreas Glöckner; Stephan Dickert;

Base-Rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-Rate Tasks with Multiple Cues

Abstract

Although intuitive-automatic processes sometimes lead to systematic biases in judgment and choice, in many situations especially this kind of processes enables people to approximate rational choices. In complex base-rate tasks with repeated outcome feedback we observed choices which were in line with the Bayes' solution in 86% of the cases and which were made within a relatively short time (i.e., 2.2 seconds). The results indicate reliance on extremely well-calibrated intuition. This view is supported by the findings that choice proportions are almost perfectly predicted by posterior probabilities (r = .93), and that error rates, response times and confidence ratings are highly correlated with inconsistency in the provided information. Our results support the hypothesis that parallel constraint satisfaction models may account for the processes underlying intuition and make the application of simple heuristics and deliberate strategies very unlikely. Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, implications for economic and psychological modeling are outlined.

Keywords

Test, ddc:330, Decision Making, Base-rate Neglect, Decision Making, Intuition, Base-rate Neglect, Heuristics, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Entscheidung bei Risiko, Heuristics, Beschränkte Rationalität, Heuristisches Verfahren, Intuition, Kognition

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
bronze