Diderot's Rule
Copyright policy )Diderot's Rule
The odds of success in creative industries like the book, music or movie industry are often said to be particularly low. A 1763 rule by Denis Diderot, for example, says that only one out of ten published books is a commercial success. Yet, representative evidence on new-product success rates and their development over time is scarce. Furthermore, the standard approach to use sales as success measure can be misleading from the producer's perspective. This paper presents a novel approach to empirically identify producer success by incorporating the standard terms of contract between creator and producer into a parsimonious model of information diffusion (word-of-mouth). The model is applied to a random sample of novels. Parametric and semiparametric estimates imply a success rate between 10 and 15\% for this market. Set against Diderot's rule, these results suggest that new-product success in the book industry has been fairly constant over time.
culture industry, Economics, Produkt, Information and Knowledge, Literatur, Diffusion, Roman, Kulturindustrie, product, New-product success; word-of-mouth; creative industries; technological change, advertising, Marketing, Nachfrage, new-product success rate; demand uncertainty; word-of-mouth; creative industries; Diderot, D.; D83; L82; Z1, Communication, diffusion, Wirtschaft, Economic Sectors, Gesetzmäßigkeit, demand, Belief, Interdependenz, Media, regularity, Prognose, L82 - Entertainment, Diffusion Processes, D83 - Search, Erfolg, Learning, art production, success, interdependence, book trade, novel, Kunstproduktion, Unawareness, market, literature, Markt, Buchhandel, Wirtschaftssektoren, marketing, Werbung, prognosis, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, jel: jel:D83, jel: jel:L82, jel: jel:O33, ddc: ddc:330
culture industry, Economics, Produkt, Information and Knowledge, Literatur, Diffusion, Roman, Kulturindustrie, product, New-product success; word-of-mouth; creative industries; technological change, advertising, Marketing, Nachfrage, new-product success rate; demand uncertainty; word-of-mouth; creative industries; Diderot, D.; D83; L82; Z1, Communication, diffusion, Wirtschaft, Economic Sectors, Gesetzmäßigkeit, demand, Belief, Interdependenz, Media, regularity, Prognose, L82 - Entertainment, Diffusion Processes, D83 - Search, Erfolg, Learning, art production, success, interdependence, book trade, novel, Kunstproduktion, Unawareness, market, literature, Markt, Buchhandel, Wirtschaftssektoren, marketing, Werbung, prognosis, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, jel: jel:D83, jel: jel:L82, jel: jel:O33, ddc: ddc:330
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