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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
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Forecasting Implied Volatility Surfaces

Authors: Francesco Audrino; Dominik Colagelo;

Forecasting Implied Volatility Surfaces

Abstract

This paper introduces a new semi-parametric methodology for the implied volatility surface, which incorporates machine learning algorithms. Given a starting model, a tree boosting algorithm sequentially minimizes the residuals of observed and estimated implied volatility. To overcome the poor predicting power of existing models, we include a grid in the region of interest, and implement a cross-validation strategy to find an optimal stopping value for the tree boosting. Back testing the out-of-sample performance on a large data set of implied volatilities on S&P 500 options, we provide empirical evidence of the strong predictive potential of our methodology.

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Keywords

Implied Volatility, Implied Volatility Surface, Forecasting, Tree Boosting, Regression Tree, Functional Gradient Descent, jel: jel:C63, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G13, jel: jel:C14

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze