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Econometrica
Article
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Econometrica
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Econometrica
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Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns

Authors: Ju, Nengjiu; Miao, Jianjun;

Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns

Abstract

We propose a novel generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model which allows a three-way separation among risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and intertemporal substitution. We apply this utility to a consumption-based asset pricing model in which consumption and dividends follow hidden Markov regime-switching processes. Our calibrated model can match the mean equity premium, the mean riskfree rate, and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price-dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, and the mean reversion of excess returns. The key intuition is that an ambiguity averse agent behaves pessimistically by attaching more weight to the pricing kernel in bad times when his continuation values are low.

Keywords

D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, G12 - Asset Pricing, Bond Interest Rates, Ambiguity aversion, Asset-pricing puzzles, 332, Trading Volume, Pessimism, Regime switching, Ambiguity aversion, learning, asset pricing puzzles, model uncertainty, robustness, pessimism, regime switching, Ambiguity aversion; learning; asset pricing puzzles; model uncertainty; robustness; pessimism, Model uncertainty, Learning, Robustness, jel: jel:D81, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:G12

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    306
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
306
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
bronze