ABSTRACT Future crude oil supply and demand was explored in the late summer of 1986 under various pricing scenarios. Key findings include the importance of price perceptions on behavior, the significance of Middle East producers, the correlation between oil price and working rigs and the prediction that oil prices are not likely to fall below $18 to $20/Bbl with real growth in crude prices of about 4 percent a year, from 1990 until the year 2000, assuming a stable Middle East.