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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2016
Data sources: EconStor
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Possibly Nonstationary Cross-Validation

Authors: Federico M Bandi; Valentina Corradi; Daniel Wilhelm;

Possibly Nonstationary Cross-Validation

Abstract

Cross-validation is the most common data-driven procedure for choosing smoothing parameters in nonparametric regression. For the case of kernel estimators with iid or strong mixing data, it is well-known that the bandwidth chosen by cross-validation is optimal with respect to the average squared error and other performance measures. In this paper, we show that the cross-validated bandwidth continues to be optimal with respect to the average squared error even when the data-generating process is a beta-recurrent Markov chain. This general class of processes covers stationary as well as nonstationary Markov chains. Hence, the proposed procedure adapts to the degree of recurrence, thereby freeing the researcher from the need to assume stationary (or nonstationary) before inference begins. We study finite sample performance in a Monte Carlo study. We conclude by demonstrating the practical usefulness of cross-validation in a highly-persistent environment, namely that of nonlinear predictive systems for market returns.

Keywords

ddc:330, Bandwidth Selection, Recurrence, Predictive Regressions

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
bronze