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EconStor
Research . 2015
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Conditional Systemic Risk with Penalized Copula

Authors: Ostap Okhrin; Alexander Ristig; Jeffrey Sheen; Stefan Trück;

Conditional Systemic Risk with Penalized Copula

Abstract

Financial contagion and systemic risk measures are commonly derived from conditional quantiles by using imposed model assumptions such as a linear parametrization. In this paper, we provide model free measures for contagion and systemic risk which are independent of the specification of conditional quantiles and simple to interpret. The proposed systemic risk measure relies on the contagion measure, whose tail behavior is theoretically studied. To emphasize contagion from extreme events, conditional quantiles are specified via hierarchical Archimedean copula. The parameters and structure of this copula are simultaneously estimated by imposing a non-concave penalty on the structure. Asymptotic properties of this sparse estimator are derived and small sample properties illustrated using simulations. We apply the proposed framework to investigate the interconnectedness between American, European and Australasian stock market indices, providing new and interesting insights into the relationship between systemic risk and contagion. In particular, our findings suggest that the systemic risk contribution from contagion in tail areas is typically lower during times of financial turmoil, while it can be significantly higher during periods of low volatility.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Stepwise penalized ML estimation, Financial contagion, ddc:330, Conditional quantile, Copula, Financial contagion, Spill-over e ect, Stepwise penalized ML estimation, Systemic risk, Tail dependence, 330 Wirtschaft, ddc:310, Spill-over effect, 310 Sammlungen allgemeiner Statistiken, G2, C40, C51, Copula, Tail dependence, Conditional quantile, G1, Systemic risk, C46, jel: jel:C40, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C46, jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:G2

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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